Characterizing extinction debt following habitat fragmentation using neutral theory

Habitat loss leads to species extinctions, both immediately and over the long-term as “extinction debt” is repaid. The same quantity of habitat can be lost in different spatial patterns with varying habitat fragmentation. How this translates to species loss remains an open problem requiring an understanding of the interplay between community dynamics and habitat structure across temporal and spatial scales. Here we develop formulas that characterize extinction debt in a spatial neutral model after habitat loss and fragmentation. Central to our formulas are two new metrics, which depend on properties of the taxa and landscape: “effective area”, measuring the remaining number of individuals; and “effective connectivity”, measuring individuals’ ability to disperse through fragmented habitat. This formalizes the conventional wisdom that habitat area and habitat connectivity are the two critical requirements for long term preservation of biodiversity. Our approach suggests that mechanistic fragmentation metrics help resolve debates about fragmentation and species loss

Experimentally testing and assessing the predictive power of species assembly rules for tropical canopy ants.

Understanding how species assemble into communities is a key goal in ecology. However, assembly rules are rarely tested experimentally, and their ability to shape real communities is poorly known. We surveyed a diverse community of epiphyte-dwelling ants and found that similar-sized species co-occurred less often than expected. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that invasion was discouraged by the presence of similarly sized resident species. The size difference for which invasion was less likely was the same as that for which wild species exhibited reduced co-occurrence. Finally we explored whether our experimentally derived assembly rules could simulate realistic communities. Communities simulated using size-based species assembly exhibited diversities closer to wild communities than those simulated using size-independent assembly, with results being sensitive to the combination of rules employed. Hence, species segregation in the wild can be driven by competitive species assembly, and this process is sufficient to generate observed species abundance distributions for tropical epiphyte-dwelling ants.TMF was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, the project “Biodiversity of Forest Ecosystems” CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0064 co-financed by the European Social Fund and the state budget of the Czech Republic, an Australian Research Council Discovery Grant (DP140101541), Yayasan Sime Darby, and the Czech Science Foundation (Reg, nos. 14-32302S,14-04258S).This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12403/abstract

Information criteria for inhomogeneous spatial point processes

The theoretical foundation for a number of model selection criteria is established in the context of inhomogeneous point processes and under various asymptotic settings: infill, increasing domain, and combinations of these. For inhomogeneous Poisson processes we consider Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, and in particular we identify the point process analogue of sample size needed for the Bayesian information criterion. Considering general inhomogeneous point processes we derive new composite likelihood and composite Bayesian information criteria for selecting a regression model for the intensity function. The proposed model selection criteria are evaluated using simulations of Poisson processes and cluster point processes.Comment: 6 figure

Regional metacommunities in two coastal systems: spatial structure and drivers of plant assemblages

Aim Biogeographical patterns in metacommunities are still poorly understood, and different processes are expected to occur in different habitats. We analysed the regional plant metacommunities of coastal habitats to test whether (1) the influence of space and climate differs between two habitats differentiated along the seashore–inland gradient, and (2) regional variation in species composition of these habitats can be ascribed to different metacommunity paradigms. Location The entire coast of the Iberian Peninsula, south-western Europe. Methods We collected data on the plant species composition of coastal sites on sand dunes across 3000 km of coastline. The sites were classified into two habitats corresponding to shifting and stable sand dunes, and divided into three distinct geographical regions: Cantabrian, Atlantic and Mediterranean. We assessed the geographical structure of the species composition using ordination, estimates of species turnover and spatial autocorrelation. We then used multivariate models and variation partitioning to test the influence of climatic and spatial effects. Analyses were conducted for the whole data set and the geographical subsets. Results Metacommunities from shifting and stable dunes showed similar spa- tial patterns, with the highest species turnover occurring in the Mediterranean region. Similarities between communities that were nearer each other (typically < 100 km) were weaker in shifting than in stable dunes, although the distance decay for sites that were further apart was similar in both habitats. Variation in species composition in shifting dunes was mainly explained by distance and climate, while in stable dunes the effect of climate was clearly dominant. The observed differences were relatively consistent across geographical regions. Main conclusions Distinct processes structure the metacommunities in two dune habitats differentiated along the seashore–inland gradient. Communities of shifting dunes seem to be structured by an interplay of neutral or patch-dynamic processes and to a lesser degree by species sorting. In contrast, communities of stable dunes are mainly governed by species sorting in response to climatic gradi- ents. These results highlight the importance of differentiating habitats according to local ecological factors when analysing regional patterns in metacommunities

Convergent structure of multitrophic communities over three continents

Ecological theory predicts that communities using the same resources should have similar structure, but evolutionary constraints on colonization and niche shifts may hamper such convergence. Multitrophic communities of wasps exploiting fig fruits, which first evolved about 75MYA, do not show long-term “inheritance” of taxonomic (lineage) composition or species diversity. However, communities on three continents have converged ecologically in the presence and relative abundance of five insect guilds that we define. Some taxa fill the same niches in each community (phylogenetic niche conservatism). However, we show that overall convergence in ecological community structure depends also on a combination of niche shifts by resident lineages and local colonizations of figs by other insect lineages. Our study explores new ground, and develops new heuristic tools, in combining ecology and phylogeny to address patterns in the complex multitrophic communities of insect on plants, which comprise a large part of terrestrial biodiversity

Community Assembly on Isolated Islands: Macroecology Meets Evolution

Aim Understanding how ecological and evolutionary processes together determine patterns of biodiversity remains a central aim in biology.Guided by ecological theory, we use data from multiple arthropod lineages across the Hawaiian archipelago to explore the interplay between ecological (population dynamics, dispersal, trophic interactions) and evolutionary (genetic structuring, adaptation, speciation, extinction) processes. Our goal is to show how communities develop from the dynamic feedbacks that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Location The Hawaiian islands (19–22° N, 155–160° W). Methods We synthesize genetic data from selected arthropods across the Hawaiian archipelago to determine the relative role of dispersal and in situ differentiation across the island chronosequence. From four sites on three high islands with geological ages ranging from 1 Myr. Herbivore–plant communities only transiently achieve statistical steady state during assembly, presumably due to incomplete assembly from dispersal in the early stages, and the increasing influence of island ontogeny on older islands

Species abundance dynamics under neutral assumptions: a Bayesian approach to the controversy

1. Hubbell's 'Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography' (UNTB) has generated much controversy about both the realism of its assumptions and how well it describes the species abundance dynamics in real communities. 2. We fit a discrete-time version of Hubbell's neutral model to long-term macro-moth (Lepidoptera) community data from the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) light-traps network in the United Kingdom. 3. We relax the assumption of constant community size and use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to show that the model does not fit the data well as it would need parameter values that are impossible. 4. This is because the ecological communities fluctuate more than expected under neutrality. 5. The model, as presented here, can be extended to include environmental stochasticity, density-dependence, or changes in population sizes that are correlated between different species

Dynamics of tree diversity in undisturbed and logged subtropical rainforest in Australia

In subtropical rainforest in eastern Australia, changes in the diversity of trees were compared under natural conditions and eight silvicultural regimes over 35 years. In the treated plots basal area remaining after logging ranged from 12 to 58 m2 per ha. In three control plots richness differed little over this period. In the eight treated plots richness per plot generally declined after intervention and then gradually increased to greater than original diversity. After logging there was a reduction in richness per plot and an increase in species richness per stem in all but the lightest selective treatments. The change in species diversity was related to the intensity of the logging, however the time taken for species richness to return to pre-logging levels was similar in all silvicultural treatments and was not effected by the intensity of treatment. These results suggest that light selective logging in these forests mainly affects dominant species. The return to high diversity after only a short time under all silvicultural regimes suggests that sustainability and the manipulation of species composition for desired management outcomes is possible

New directions in island biogeography

Aim: Much of our current understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes comes from island research. With the increasing availability of data on distributions and phylogenetic relationships and new analytical approaches to understanding the processes that shape species distributions and interactions, a re-evaluation of this ever-interesting topic is timely. Location: Islands globally. Methods: We start by arguing that the reasons why island research has achieved so much in the past also apply to the future. We then critically assess the current state of island biogeography, focusing on recent changes in emphasis, including research featured in this special issue of Global Ecology and Biogeography. Finally, we suggest promising themes for the future. We cover both ecological and evolutionary topics, although the greater emphasis on island ecology reflects our own backgrounds and interests. Results: Much ecological theory has been directly or indirectly influenced by research on island biotas. Currently, island biogeography is renascent, with research focusing on, among other things, patterns and processes underlying species interaction networks, species coexistence and the assembly of island communities through ecological and evolutionary time. Continuing island research should provide additional insight into biological invasions and other impacts of human activities, functional diversity and ecosystem functioning, extinction and diversification, species pools and more. Deeper understanding of the similarities and differences between island and mainland systems will aid transferability of island theory to continental regions. Main conclusions: As research in biogeography and related fields expands in new directions, islands continue to provide opportunities for developing insights, both as natural laboratories for ecology and evolution and because of the exceptions islands often present to the usual ‘rules’ of ecology. New data collection initiatives are needed on islands world-wide and should be directed towards filling gaps in our knowledge of within-island distributions of species, as well as the functional traits and phylogenetic relationships of island species